Surely it feels a bit like a race against time here, who will be first – we have two distinct development chains running away right now that I will come back to below.
We went through the Russian threat yesterday after a Belgian captain felt dizzy and had stomach pain when a conscript handed him an anti-drone weapon and said, “brother, can you see 15 drones in the sight, aren’t they ours?”
Today’s lesson will be as follows – Russia does not need to have a defense against the 2025 war from Europe, they just need to attack us with the 2025 war. When you have thought about that, you will quickly come to the conclusion that Russia already has this redundancy today if they were to find the Baltics cheeky for not wanting to be part of the red colonial empire.
Below, a loitering drone package of a few hundred units would be enough for the 2025 warfare against us (you saw it yesterday but here it is again). Poland’s long lines of mechanized units advancing as they showed in their latest exercise/force posture are just big targets.
A mechanized brigade today in the fall of 2025 is a big target and Russia has significantly increased the use of this type of loitering ammunition at the fronts in the past six months. Just at the Dnieper front, we were told it was 600/day a few months ago, and that is a low-priority front.
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Ma3ya_lqCLM?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0
What is not a little ironic is that in the drones Russia is now sending towards Europe, there are at least 100 European-manufactured components per drone, a bit of a boomerang if I ever saw one that we actually deserve.
If Russia were to choose to risk Article 5, they could attack the Baltics with the resources of the previous war – tanks, armored vehicles, CAS, self-propelled howitzers, Iskander, Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, and motorized infantry.
They do not use much of this at all in Ukraine, and we have not seen the capability buildup of recent years land in Ukraine at all – 1500 tanks per year, for example, and 1000 robots.
Almost by chance after my Fall B, we now have video evidence of Russian self-propelled howitzers driving towards Pskov. What arrives in Pskov stays in Pskov if you remember a previous post on the subject.
The text below continues and is locked for subscribers, this is a first test and please confirm that you can read the post for those of you who subscribe as I am stumbling in the dark with this as usual.
There will be a mix of open and locked posts in the future, I humbly ask for your patience until we get started.
If you remember a previous post on the subject, Russia has made efforts to conceal transports with camouflage nets over the train station in Pskov, and built new large depots in places like Palkino.
Earlier this year, primarily artillery units that moved towards/through Pskov did not later appear in Ukraine, and it is not unreasonable at all that Russia has begun to build up capabilities by moving equipment into depots in towns bordering eastern Estonia and Latvia, west of Pskov.
This provides a much shorter warning than if heavy equipment starts loading onto trains in the garrison towns – they can sneak in units for a week without alerting the West, and by then reconnaissance and Spetsnaz are already in place.
Not until a train full of troops veers towards Pskov and starts loading soft vehicles will the alarm chain start, and then it’s 1-2 days from the start and Suwalki is already mined.
This would of course result in Article 5, and so far we have guessed that RU will try with “little green men” in the forests of eastern Baltics and there will be no warning at all, they are probably already there.
It is the easiest thing in the world to be reactive and to mock those who issue warnings that they are just chasing subscribers, but you also see just like me how Europe is increasing preparedness everywhere now.
Then the lazy take it as an excuse that now comes sabotage and drone flyovers, and the diligent one asks the question – why is there an increased amount of sabotage and drone flyovers.
Those who know their Cold War know that it is war-preparing.
ISW warns that Russia has now entered a new war-preparing phase but does not want to speculate on the timeline, which is good.
My guess is that the door is closed when the Balts mine the border again and that is the timeline RU practically has to adhere to.
Sometime next summer, Europe should also have countermeasures against drone weapons in units if we follow how the cycles have been in the Ukraine war.
China is already a party to the Ukraine war, where they have provided Russia with satellite data for targets in Lviv ahead of a recent major operation a few days ago
And North Korea accounts for half of RU’s war material in the war with China’s good memory of course
And here is advanced Chinese anti-drone technology in the Russian army.
Ukraine is doing what they can together with the Balts perhaps to delay the capability buildup, far from the first liberation act in that area and the equipment was not heading towards Ukraine anyway.
We have not yet seen Russia’s offensive strategic reserves, but we know they are not in Ukraine and therefore they could very well be intended for the Baltics in the worst case scenario – that is what Europe has to deal with.
Ukraine is shooting down fewer and fewer Shaheds, most recently 83 out of 116
Russian robots are becoming increasingly difficult to shoot down
And Ukraine has had to relocate training bases due to robot hits for those who think RU misses everything and just bombs cities.
At the fronts, you know it’s not going great, Ukraine is conducting a delaying action to their main defense line, I will come back to the fronts in about a week.
But you know that Ukraine has a strategic offensive reserve and that they are now preparing for the Azov thrust – it is obvious to everyone following this 😀
In the Caucasus, things are getting very lively and Kazakhstan has sided with Ukraine along with Azerbaijan.
This is what I wanted to get to – as we wrote in the beginning, surely it feels a bit like a race against time here, who will be first.
Either RU will start its planned escalation towards Europe, or the imperialist soufflé will collapse.
They can no more counter the subversive activities inside Russia than we can, and they do not have full control over it just as we do not. Russia is just as vulnerable to Ukrainian sabotage as we are to Russian, and now after August 2025, the USA no longer stops this.
A collapse will also come suddenly, and we will see it on TV when the streamlined jumps to Dubai begin.
But if RU manages to get started against us in Europe, it may very well happen that the freedom-seeking minority peoples get cold feet.
They are also cowards just like our leaders and will only join when the likelihood of a big win is 1. No one wants a prolonged war like in Ukraine.
The next conclusion is that since Ukraine has now been given full permission to try to bring down Russia, RU’s only countermove is to try to escalate the conflict against Europe.
They can do that with dedicated reserves parallel to the war in Ukraine. Russia must try to remove Europe from the equation, and as it stands right now, we are well on our way instead and will increase our involvement in Ukraine.
It’s better to test if they can bring down Europe with at least one twilight scenario that triggers our era’s major stock market crash and political chaos.
In Ukraine, Russia will continue to grind on with what they have, maybe attacking from Belarus and out of Transnistria.
The most crucial months of the war, as it has been said a couple of times now.
What is guaranteed to happen this fall/winter is power outages – it’s under Article 5 and a no-brainer.
Little green men will also come in some form at some point, and that’s what Europe will throw its Special Operations Forces at, and everyone will deny it until they turn blue in the face.
More conflict than that, Anyone? B?
Russia is probably thumbing through that plan right now, weighing their options.
Remember the rumor about France preparing hospitals for war – it apparently turned out to be true and it’s for K2 2026.
I think someone needs to have a chat with my German friend Carsten Breuer, who has flooded all feeds with the idea that we won’t have any hint of conflict before 2029.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-must-be-ready-for-war-by-2029-defense-minister-warns
I don’t know when the revision will come, but the whole of Europe is currently preparing for war, it’s a fact even if we are not taking the right actions and are running late.
The tardiness hurts my self-image even though we have some fun gadgets in the works, like this anti-drone unit for example, even though it’s animated and therefore not yet real.
The outcome of an escalation towards Europe, I believe, has more to do with Ukraine’s ability to bring down Russia than Europe’s ability to defend itself, unfortunately.
I don’t know when Russia is most vulnerable, I’ll have to start looking into that.
I think it’s clear now that an escalation is coming.
Country after country in Europe is ramping up and distributing their “if war comes” guides, hospitals are instructed to review their war organizations, Gotland has been reinforced with Polish assistance, Denmark is increasing readiness at high-value targets, FRA is increasing readiness at high-value targets, and NATO has turned off transponders in their operations.
This is just a drop in the ocean of what is currently happening all over Europe, but everything is verifiable and can be presented as evidence that we are preparing for war.
One can have their own opinion, but here we are now – for three years, those of us in the sphere I operate in have said that the easiest way to the finish line is for Ukraine to win the war.
Now, at the eleventh hour, we finally let Ukraine do it, but we don’t provide the capability needed and just hope that everything will work out and the difficult parts will disappear on their own.
It probably will, since we’re talking about Ukraine here, but it’s so incredibly poorly handled by Europe that one would want to declare oneself a dictator and make a lot of tough decisions.
My first decision – the Norwegians will become human drone shields, they will pay back for 1805 😡
Surely it feels a bit like a race against time here, who will be first – we have two distinct development chains running away right now that I will come back to below.
We went through the Russian threat yesterday after a Belgian captain felt dizzy and had stomach pain when a conscript handed him an anti-drone weapon and said, "brother, can you see 15 drones in the sight, aren't they ours?"
Today's lesson will be as follows – Russia does not need to have a defense against the 2025 war from Europe, they just need to attack us with the 2025 war. When you have thought about that, you will quickly come to the conclusion that Russia already has this redundancy today if they were to find the Baltics cheeky for not wanting to be part of the red colonial empire.
Below, a loitering drone package of a few hundred units would be enough for the 2025 warfare against us (you saw it yesterday but here it is again). Poland's long lines of mechanized units advancing as they showed in their latest exercise/force posture are just big targets.
A mechanized brigade today in the fall of 2025 is a big target and Russia has significantly increased the use of this type of loitering ammunition at the fronts in the past six months. Just at the Dnieper front, we were told it was 600/day a few months ago, and that is a low-priority front.
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Ma3ya_lqCLM?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0
What is not a little ironic is that in the drones Russia is now sending towards Europe, there are at least 100 European-manufactured components per drone, a bit of a boomerang if I ever saw one that we actually deserve.
If Russia were to choose to risk Article 5, they could attack the Baltics with the resources of the previous war – tanks, armored vehicles, CAS, self-propelled howitzers, Iskander, Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, and motorized infantry.
They do not use much of this at all in Ukraine, and we have not seen the capability buildup of recent years land in Ukraine at all – 1500 tanks per year, for example, and 1000 robots.
Almost by chance after my Fall B, we now have video evidence of Russian self-propelled howitzers driving towards Pskov. What arrives in Pskov stays in Pskov if you remember a previous post on the subject.
The text below continues and is locked for subscribers, this is a first test and please confirm that you can read the post for those of you who subscribe as I am stumbling in the dark with this as usual.
There will be a mix of open and locked posts in the future, I humbly ask for your patience until we get started.
If you remember a previous post on the subject, Russia has made efforts to conceal transports with camouflage nets over the train station in Pskov, and built new large depots in places like Palkino.
Earlier this year, primarily artillery units that moved towards/through Pskov did not later appear in Ukraine, and it is not unreasonable at all that Russia has begun to build up capabilities by moving equipment into depots in towns bordering eastern Estonia and Latvia, west of Pskov.
This provides a much shorter warning than if heavy equipment starts loading onto trains in the garrison towns – they can sneak in units for a week without alerting the West, and by then reconnaissance and Spetsnaz are already in place.
Not until a train full of troops veers towards Pskov and starts loading soft vehicles will the alarm chain start, and then it's 1-2 days from the start and Suwalki is already mined.
This would of course result in Article 5, and so far we have guessed that RU will try with "little green men" in the forests of eastern Baltics and there will be no warning at all, they are probably already there.
It is the easiest thing in the world to be reactive and to mock those who issue warnings that they are just chasing subscribers, but you also see just like me how Europe is increasing preparedness everywhere now.
Then the lazy take it as an excuse that now comes sabotage and drone flyovers, and the diligent one asks the question – why is there an increased amount of sabotage and drone flyovers.
Those who know their Cold War know that it is war-preparing.
ISW warns that Russia has now entered a new war-preparing phase but does not want to speculate on the timeline, which is good.
My guess is that the door is closed when the Balts mine the border again and that is the timeline RU practically has to adhere to.
Sometime next summer, Europe should also have countermeasures against drone weapons in units if we follow how the cycles have been in the Ukraine war.
China is already a party to the Ukraine war, where they have provided Russia with satellite data for targets in Lviv ahead of a recent major operation a few days ago
And North Korea accounts for half of RU's war material in the war with China's good memory of course
And here is advanced Chinese anti-drone technology in the Russian army.
Ukraine is doing what they can together with the Balts perhaps to delay the capability buildup, far from the first liberation act in that area and the equipment was not heading towards Ukraine anyway.
We have not yet seen Russia's offensive strategic reserves, but we know they are not in Ukraine and therefore they could very well be intended for the Baltics in the worst case scenario – that is what Europe has to deal with.
Ukraine is shooting down fewer and fewer Shaheds, most recently 83 out of 116
Russian robots are becoming increasingly difficult to shoot down
And Ukraine has had to relocate training bases due to robot hits for those who think RU misses everything and just bombs cities.
At the fronts, you know it's not going great, Ukraine is conducting a delaying action to their main defense line, I will come back to the fronts in about a week.
But you know that Ukraine has a strategic offensive reserve and that they are now preparing for the Azov thrust – it is obvious to everyone following this 😀
In the Caucasus, things are getting very lively and Kazakhstan has sided with Ukraine along with Azerbaijan.
This is what I wanted to get to – as we wrote in the beginning, surely it feels a bit like a race against time here, who will be first.
Either RU will start its planned escalation towards Europe, or the imperialist soufflé will collapse.
They can no more counter the subversive activities inside Russia than we can, and they do not have full control over it just as we do not. Russia is just as vulnerable to Ukrainian sabotage as we are to Russian, and now after August 2025, the USA no longer stops this.
A collapse will also come suddenly, and we will see it on TV when the streamlined jumps to Dubai begin.
But if RU manages to get started against us in Europe, it may very well happen that the freedom-seeking minority peoples get cold feet.
They are also cowards just like our leaders and will only join when the likelihood of a big win is 1. No one wants a prolonged war like in Ukraine.
The next conclusion is that since Ukraine has now been given full permission to try to bring down Russia, RU's only countermove is to try to escalate the conflict against Europe.
They can do that with dedicated reserves parallel to the war in Ukraine. Russia must try to remove Europe from the equation, and as it stands right now, we are well on our way instead and will increase our involvement in Ukraine.
It's better to test if they can bring down Europe with at least one twilight scenario that triggers our era's major stock market crash and political chaos.
In Ukraine, Russia will continue to grind on with what they have, maybe attacking from Belarus and out of Transnistria.
The most crucial months of the war, as it has been said a couple of times now.
What is guaranteed to happen this fall/winter is power outages - it's under Article 5 and a no-brainer.
Little green men will also come in some form at some point, and that's what Europe will throw its Special Operations Forces at, and everyone will deny it until they turn blue in the face.
More conflict than that, Anyone? B?
Russia is probably thumbing through that plan right now, weighing their options.
Remember the rumor about France preparing hospitals for war - it apparently turned out to be true and it's for K2 2026.
I think someone needs to have a chat with my German friend Carsten Breuer, who has flooded all feeds with the idea that we won't have any hint of conflict before 2029.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-must-be-ready-for-war-by-2029-defense-minister-warns
I don't know when the revision will come, but the whole of Europe is currently preparing for war, it's a fact even if we are not taking the right actions and are running late.
The tardiness hurts my self-image even though we have some fun gadgets in the works, like this anti-drone unit for example, even though it's animated and therefore not yet real.
The outcome of an escalation towards Europe, I believe, has more to do with Ukraine's ability to bring down Russia than Europe's ability to defend itself, unfortunately.
I don't know when Russia is most vulnerable, I'll have to start looking into that.
I think it's clear now that an escalation is coming.
Country after country in Europe is ramping up and distributing their "if war comes" guides, hospitals are instructed to review their war organizations, Gotland has been reinforced with Polish assistance, Denmark is increasing readiness at high-value targets, FRA is increasing readiness at high-value targets, and NATO has turned off transponders in their operations.
This is just a drop in the ocean of what is currently happening all over Europe, but everything is verifiable and can be presented as evidence that we are preparing for war.
One can have their own opinion, but here we are now - for three years, those of us in the sphere I operate in have said that the easiest way to the finish line is for Ukraine to win the war.
Now, at the eleventh hour, we finally let Ukraine do it, but we don't provide the capability needed and just hope that everything will work out and the difficult parts will disappear on their own.
It probably will, since we're talking about Ukraine here, but it's so incredibly poorly handled by Europe that one would want to declare oneself a dictator and make a lot of tough decisions.
My first decision - the Norwegians will become human drone shields, they will pay back for 1805 😡
