As is well known, I am related to General Patton through a champagne-loving secretary, so I understand a bit of his mindset, and he will be green with envy in 2025 over Ukraine’s violent offensives.
How is the war going now when everyone is feeling down?
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I can tell you how it’s going –
-Trump won’t have much power over what the EU does in the future.
-The EU has decided to engage in the fight, that’s clear.
-RU has made very little progress in recent months, to the point of embarrassment when looking at the losses.
-UA is droning Russia apart, especially targeting fuel, ammunition, and production of key components.
-RU’s response is weak with missile attacks, and their modus operandi is to retaliate times 10.
-The West is delivering a LOT of equipment now, heavy packages, and many countries have committed to training Ukrainian brigades.
-Ukraine is actively destabilizing Russia from within.
-Ukraine has been given permission to continue invading Russia AND targeting previously forbidden infrastructure – oil exports. The geographic restrictions from Biden have been partially or completely removed, or maybe Ukraine has stopped caring?
In 2024, it was a worrying time as the West wavered, primarily with the traitors Biden, Sullivan, and Scholz, while other Western leaders remained silent.
Now, country after country is being drawn into the conflict and indirectly confronting RU – Finland, the Baltics, Sweden, and France at least.
The UK is still keeping a low profile and playing a bit dirty to make it look big, while Scholz is doing his best to tarnish Germany’s reputation.
Scholz has embarrassed Germany, Biden has embarrassed the USA, and Kier Starmer is embarrassing the UK.
The Nordic countries are standing strong, except for Norway, which should do more. Denmark is an absolute lion, coming in a strong second after Finland (because they are fighting on the front line), followed by Sweden.
Finland has seized Russian property within the country, closed the border, declared that if a Russian battalion crosses the border, they will retaliate against Moscow, and boarded a Russian ship. Also, Russia is conducting war-preparatory sabotage.
Is this as close to open conflict as it gets without actually having open conflict?
The Baltics are almost following suit, but they are a bit more cautious.
France currently has Macron leading the charge, which may have an expiration date, but he already took on Putin in January 2024.
Time is on Ukraine’s side, and everything is always relative – RU is starting to have trouble deploying mechanized brigades because they have no heavy vehicles left, and the artillery is shattered. They rely on infantry attacks, transporting the artillery forward with whatever vehicles are available, down to electric scooters.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly receiving the top-notch equipment they have wanted – newly produced, approved by EU countries because it’s good for business.
When they should have sent the latest equipment to themselves…
Remember the discussion that the West would NEVER send the latest equipment to Ukraine to avoid giving RU access to the technology? Well, I see that with the German LYNX 😲
All explanatory models are always wrong from the negative perspective.
But yes – Ukraine must be able to hold the fronts, but the feared front collapse did not happen in 2024 when the West, as revenge for Kursk, stopped delivering equipment, again….
In Kursk, Ukraine has among its most valuable units and various Special Operations Forces fighting to hold back the tide.
Probably less than 20,000, so numerically outnumbered by the Russians’ 60,000.
But what is RU losing daily up there, surely around a thousand in KWIA, if not every day of the week, then a couple. So, the 60,000 they have there will last for two months, and then they’re at zero.
Ukraine conducts mobile defense warfare in Kursk.
I don’t know how the mobilization is progressing, but I can tell you that if the artillery starts smelling the morning air and UA recruits widely in the EU, there are many hundreds of thousands who don’t want to miss the chance to take down a Russian before the war ends.
It’s the guaranteed ticket to either death or serious disability that is deterrent.
Same goes for the Russian team, and there’s no change in sight, so Putin will find it increasingly difficult to recruit. He can’t mobilize a million because that’s a bigger threat to him than Ukraine.
USA is sneaky, see how much they are taking over LNG and oil exports to the EU, so you understand they waited until they could start delivering before going hard against Russia. USA is like the bank, not your friend.
Their massive $860 billion aid package has largely stayed within the country, so a bit of accounting tricks.
Or the fact that the EU never imported as much LNG from Russia as in 2024 😲
Regarding the fires in Malibu, Los Angeles, it’s the classic untouched forest where brush wasn’t cleared or firebreaks maintained, coupled with a new council member who prioritized other things over firefighting.
But there are also five (5) ongoing fires, and to me, it looks like arson, which it also seems to be to some extent.
I spent a few years during COVID in a technical unit at the municipality, and out of 400 employees, maybe 40 worked on the core mission, while the rest tried to find things to justify their salaries. It was a massive administration, and at that time, the mantra was bike lanes and parks, everything else, the managers believed, managed itself without a budget. The core mission was bridge construction, and they were neglected because the budget was anorexic – all went to bike lanes, and then employees sat in administrative meetings half the time.
The technical staff were seen as a necessary evil and kept on a short leash. So those in the office who were “nurturing” (for lack of a better word) were completely sidelined by all the “draining” ones.
When I started as a civil engineer at a consulting firm in the UK in the early 2000s, it was the civil engineers who made decisions, and everyone else was support functions. Then, some new type of management crept in where non-technical personnel started making decisions, and the civil engineers had to comply. A tremendous amount of common sense was lost across the board.
Now, refineries are exploding again – UA is droning on 💥💥💥
This is (at least) the 53rd attack on a refinery resulting in a large fireball, and now the strategic bombing carpet over Russia is a bit like Germany in 1944, and I no longer report, but a refinery has news value.
In fact, Ukraine is currently droning apart the Russian Federation, targeting high-value assets every day – headquarters, ammunition depots, production facilities, barracks, military equipment depots, production of key components, fuel depots, and especially the oil industry and rail transport.
Russia is being dismantled bit by bit, and the economy is deteriorating.
Fuel may become scarce in the future because UA has absolutely made a bonfire of the Russian fuel infrastructure.
Furthermore, the Greenland debacle was a GRU operation already from Trump’s earlier presidency – it just continues. That was something no one could have guessed (but we did yesterday…) 😲
And China is not sitting idle,
The debacle with the Taiwanese company that produced for and exported directly to Russia without intermediaries was Chinese companies pretending to be the Taiwanese company – it’s nice that it was exposed so quickly.
And China is now building landing tonnage for the invasion of Taiwan, a final preparation of it all 😲
NK Bandhaubits now in action in Ukraine – it happened quickly, and if the Russians handle it, it will be much faster than I thought. Some risk of Chinese tanks coming soon if the West doesn’t set boundaries.
Dugin leaks Russia’s plan to destabilize the EU – that’s actually what we are seeing, no guesses at all. EU_IS_UNDER_ATTACK!!!
Should it be so difficult to do as Finland and accept the current situation.
Here’s another one about my major depression in 2024 – the situation was precarious to say the least, and Tatarigami describes it.
But everything is pointing in the right direction –
-RU gas revenues are decreasing significantly
-RU FAB usage has decreased significantly
-60% drop
-UA drone port
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1875501712724914531?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
-UA drone Smolensk
-Trembita – a cheap mass-produced robot. RU can’t handle this as corruption is too high.
https://x.com/bricktop_nafo/status/1875042286691561567?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
All arrows are green and pointing slightly upwards, then you hear the same music as I do, calming, and see a light blue dawn.
The Golgotha walk is over, but it will take a few months before the world’s experts understand it.
Then of course, the West can once again, for the third or fourth time, make a U-turn and stop delivering, but we have to go by what we see, right, and it’s time for a decisive blow against Russia.
Elections in Belarus soon – do you think the mustache is already in place?
As usual, if you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels.
As is well known, I am related to General Patton through a champagne-loving secretary, so I understand a bit of his mindset, and he will be green with envy in 2025 over Ukraine's violent offensives.
How is the war going now when everyone is feeling down?
Thanks for reading Johan’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Subscribed
I can tell you how it's going –
-Trump won't have much power over what the EU does in the future.
-The EU has decided to engage in the fight, that's clear.
-RU has made very little progress in recent months, to the point of embarrassment when looking at the losses.
-UA is droning Russia apart, especially targeting fuel, ammunition, and production of key components.
-RU's response is weak with missile attacks, and their modus operandi is to retaliate times 10.
-The West is delivering a LOT of equipment now, heavy packages, and many countries have committed to training Ukrainian brigades.
-Ukraine is actively destabilizing Russia from within.
-Ukraine has been given permission to continue invading Russia AND targeting previously forbidden infrastructure – oil exports. The geographic restrictions from Biden have been partially or completely removed, or maybe Ukraine has stopped caring?
In 2024, it was a worrying time as the West wavered, primarily with the traitors Biden, Sullivan, and Scholz, while other Western leaders remained silent.
Now, country after country is being drawn into the conflict and indirectly confronting RU – Finland, the Baltics, Sweden, and France at least.
The UK is still keeping a low profile and playing a bit dirty to make it look big, while Scholz is doing his best to tarnish Germany's reputation.
Scholz has embarrassed Germany, Biden has embarrassed the USA, and Kier Starmer is embarrassing the UK.
The Nordic countries are standing strong, except for Norway, which should do more. Denmark is an absolute lion, coming in a strong second after Finland (because they are fighting on the front line), followed by Sweden.
Finland has seized Russian property within the country, closed the border, declared that if a Russian battalion crosses the border, they will retaliate against Moscow, and boarded a Russian ship. Also, Russia is conducting war-preparatory sabotage.
Is this as close to open conflict as it gets without actually having open conflict?
The Baltics are almost following suit, but they are a bit more cautious.
France currently has Macron leading the charge, which may have an expiration date, but he already took on Putin in January 2024.
Time is on Ukraine's side, and everything is always relative - RU is starting to have trouble deploying mechanized brigades because they have no heavy vehicles left, and the artillery is shattered. They rely on infantry attacks, transporting the artillery forward with whatever vehicles are available, down to electric scooters.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly receiving the top-notch equipment they have wanted – newly produced, approved by EU countries because it's good for business.
When they should have sent the latest equipment to themselves...
Remember the discussion that the West would NEVER send the latest equipment to Ukraine to avoid giving RU access to the technology? Well, I see that with the German LYNX 😲
All explanatory models are always wrong from the negative perspective.
But yes – Ukraine must be able to hold the fronts, but the feared front collapse did not happen in 2024 when the West, as revenge for Kursk, stopped delivering equipment, again….
In Kursk, Ukraine has among its most valuable units and various Special Operations Forces fighting to hold back the tide.
Probably less than 20,000, so numerically outnumbered by the Russians' 60,000.
But what is RU losing daily up there, surely around a thousand in KWIA, if not every day of the week, then a couple. So, the 60,000 they have there will last for two months, and then they're at zero.
Ukraine conducts mobile defense warfare in Kursk.
I don't know how the mobilization is progressing, but I can tell you that if the artillery starts smelling the morning air and UA recruits widely in the EU, there are many hundreds of thousands who don't want to miss the chance to take down a Russian before the war ends.
It's the guaranteed ticket to either death or serious disability that is deterrent.
Same goes for the Russian team, and there's no change in sight, so Putin will find it increasingly difficult to recruit. He can't mobilize a million because that's a bigger threat to him than Ukraine.
USA is sneaky, see how much they are taking over LNG and oil exports to the EU, so you understand they waited until they could start delivering before going hard against Russia. USA is like the bank, not your friend.
Their massive $860 billion aid package has largely stayed within the country, so a bit of accounting tricks.
Or the fact that the EU never imported as much LNG from Russia as in 2024 😲
Regarding the fires in Malibu, Los Angeles, it's the classic untouched forest where brush wasn't cleared or firebreaks maintained, coupled with a new council member who prioritized other things over firefighting.
But there are also five (5) ongoing fires, and to me, it looks like arson, which it also seems to be to some extent.
I spent a few years during COVID in a technical unit at the municipality, and out of 400 employees, maybe 40 worked on the core mission, while the rest tried to find things to justify their salaries. It was a massive administration, and at that time, the mantra was bike lanes and parks, everything else, the managers believed, managed itself without a budget. The core mission was bridge construction, and they were neglected because the budget was anorexic – all went to bike lanes, and then employees sat in administrative meetings half the time.
The technical staff were seen as a necessary evil and kept on a short leash. So those in the office who were "nurturing" (for lack of a better word) were completely sidelined by all the "draining" ones.
When I started as a civil engineer at a consulting firm in the UK in the early 2000s, it was the civil engineers who made decisions, and everyone else was support functions. Then, some new type of management crept in where non-technical personnel started making decisions, and the civil engineers had to comply. A tremendous amount of common sense was lost across the board.
Now, refineries are exploding again – UA is droning on 💥💥💥
This is (at least) the 53rd attack on a refinery resulting in a large fireball, and now the strategic bombing carpet over Russia is a bit like Germany in 1944, and I no longer report, but a refinery has news value.
In fact, Ukraine is currently droning apart the Russian Federation, targeting high-value assets every day – headquarters, ammunition depots, production facilities, barracks, military equipment depots, production of key components, fuel depots, and especially the oil industry and rail transport.
Russia is being dismantled bit by bit, and the economy is deteriorating.
Fuel may become scarce in the future because UA has absolutely made a bonfire of the Russian fuel infrastructure.
Furthermore, the Greenland debacle was a GRU operation already from Trump's earlier presidency – it just continues. That was something no one could have guessed (but we did yesterday...) 😲
And China is not sitting idle,
The debacle with the Taiwanese company that produced for and exported directly to Russia without intermediaries was Chinese companies pretending to be the Taiwanese company – it's nice that it was exposed so quickly.
And China is now building landing tonnage for the invasion of Taiwan, a final preparation of it all 😲
NK Bandhaubits now in action in Ukraine – it happened quickly, and if the Russians handle it, it will be much faster than I thought. Some risk of Chinese tanks coming soon if the West doesn't set boundaries.
Dugin leaks Russia's plan to destabilize the EU – that's actually what we are seeing, no guesses at all. EU_IS_UNDER_ATTACK!!!
Should it be so difficult to do as Finland and accept the current situation.
Here's another one about my major depression in 2024 – the situation was precarious to say the least, and Tatarigami describes it.
But everything is pointing in the right direction –
-RU gas revenues are decreasing significantly
-RU FAB usage has decreased significantly
-60% drop
-UA drone port
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1875501712724914531?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
-UA drone Smolensk
-Trembita – a cheap mass-produced robot. RU can't handle this as corruption is too high.
https://x.com/bricktop_nafo/status/1875042286691561567?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
All arrows are green and pointing slightly upwards, then you hear the same music as I do, calming, and see a light blue dawn.
The Golgotha walk is over, but it will take a few months before the world's experts understand it.
Then of course, the West can once again, for the third or fourth time, make a U-turn and stop delivering, but we have to go by what we see, right, and it's time for a decisive blow against Russia.
Elections in Belarus soon – do you think the mustache is already in place?
As usual, if you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels.
